The climate is changing, whether we are ready or not. The spatial industry, it seems, is not.
‘Adaptation to the effects of climate change is a new area of research that presents enormous opportunities for the spatial industry,’ says chief executive of the Spatial Industries Business Association, David Hocking. ‘But I don’t think the industry really understands what these opportunities are.’
It has led to a surge in demand for spatial information, but businesses in the industry are not prepared to meet this demand, says Hocking. The problem isn’t about skill. It’s about mindset.
‘Many are still stuck believing that our role is to define boundaries. The world has moved beyond that. Developments are increasingly being driven by factors outside the industry – climate change is a perfect example,’ he says.
Craig Roberts, from the School of Surveying and Spatial Information Systems at the University of NSW, believes the problem lies with both the universities and the spatial profession.
‘UNSW does not have a structured approach to incorporating developments in climate change research into its spatial courses. Some changes are being introduced on an ad hoc basis, but they really only scratch the surface,’ he says.
But even if university programs did scratch below the surface, it isn’t yet clear where this would lead.
‘A big part of the problem, particularly when we’re talking about adapting to climate change, is that we don’t actually know what “adaptation” means yet. I don’t think anybody does, not even government. We don’t really know where to start.’
Figuring out where to start is made more difficult by opposition from industry bodies that do not see climate change education as relevant to engineering.
‘On the one hand, the university has a responsibility to produce graduates who will be of use to the profession – and who the profession sees as useful. On the other, universities are expected to push the profession, sometimes kicking and screaming, to keep up with changes in the world,’ says Roberts.
‘We stay on the cutting edge of research so that we can produce graduates who have the skills and ability to recognise opportunities in new areas. Climate change is a real opportunity, but to surveyors, education in this area is just diluting the course. That’s why I don’t think the surveying profession is ready for climate change.’
Yet ready or not, voices all over the world are calling urgently for spatial information.
Scientists at the IPCC conference in Copenhagen (10-12 March) were explicit about the importance of spatial data in supplementing the human, social and regional aspects of Earth system models.
‘Although these models are making great progress in simulating the physical aspects of the Earth system, they neglect many aspects of the crucial role that society plays,’ said Dr Joseph Alcamo, the executive director of the Centre for Environmental Systems Research at the University of Kassel, Germany.
‘The availability of new, geographically explicit datasets shows us more accurately how society influences such things as albedo, moisture fluxes, and fluxes of greenhouse gases associated with land use.’
Alcamo says that more spatial information could take these advances further.
‘Efforts to map changes in land use and the water cycle have been particularly valuable, but they require input data such as the spatial distribution of population, irrigated areas and power plants. Information for validation – including high-resolution datasets for land cover and river discharge – is also essential.
‘Incorporating data on land cover changes in models can lead to more realistic simulation of society’s role in the climate system.’
The call is coming from government, too, as it scrambles to come up with a plan for life in a hotter, drier future. However mammoth the task, even countries that have so far failed to act are now attempting to make up lost ground by throwing people – and dollars – at adaptation research and strategies.
In April this year, the federal government issued tenders calling for advice on ways to protect the national infrastructure from the impacts of climate change. In March, it allocated $1.3 million for research into adaptation strategies for primary industries. Three months earlier, it announced a grant of $161,000 to the Australian Building Codes Board for research into how building codes should be adjusted to make buildings ‘climate-proof’.
In October 2008, the government allocated $10 million over four years to seven new research networks to investigate climate change adaptation. Earlier that year, $2.8 million went to projects to help vulnerable coastal communities plan for the effects of climate change; local councils were given an additional $1.55 million to put adaptation initiatives in place. That round of funding also allocated $1.9 million to help tertiary institutions and professional associations integrate climate change education into their programs. All these projects are funded from an adaptation budget of $126 million over five years, announced in April 2007.
While work is in its early stages, what is already clear is that geography, and more specifically, location, is key. It will be a powerful factor in determining the ability of people and communities to adapt to climate change in Australia.
For example, while average temperatures are projected to rise by up to 2ºC by 2030 and 6ºC by 2070, the highest readings are expected in central and north western Australia. The continent is currently experiencing its worst drought in recorded history, but scientists are predicting increases in the frequency and extent of droughts over most of southern and eastern Australia. Areas in the south and west of the country will face acute water shortages and supply constraints. Of all major cities, Adelaide’s water supply will be one of the most vulnerable.
The increase in fire risk is greatest inland. Extreme fire weather will occur more often in southern Australia, with longer fire seasons. Tropical cyclone days are projected to increase in the northeast, and the strongest cyclones are expected to become more intense.
The impact of sea level rise – which could exceed one metre by the end of the century – is expected to be worse on the east coast, where the mean rise is projected to exceed the global mean.
Developing strategies to cope with sea level rise is a priority in Australia. Around 80 per cent of the population lives within 50 kilometres of the coast, where population growth and investment continues to increase. Scientists say some coastal communities will be forced to abandon their homes in a ‘planned retreat’; others may be protected by sea walls and levees.
Agriculture, which provides livelihoods for more than half a million Australians, will suffer in a hotter, drier world. The area of arable land will decrease, while evaporative water loss, soil erosion, livestock stress, pest and disease outbreaks and fire risks will increase. By the end of this century, the annual mean flow of the Murray- Darling Basin – which supplies 75 per cent of water used for irrigation – is expected to drop by up to 48 per cent.
Climate change will also bring changes to the spatial distribution of disease. Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are expected to move south. By 2050, up to 1.4 million more people may be exposed to dengue fever. There is also increased risk of infectious food poisoning from salmonella, campylobacter and other temperature-sensitive bacteria.
‘At higher temperatures, polluting compounds from sources such as motor vehicles or bushfires react in the air to generate ozone,’ says Dr Martin Cope, who leads the CSIRO marine and atmospheric research team. ‘High levels of ozone in the atmosphere can trigger a number of health problems and aggravate conditions such as asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema.’
Scientists from the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology predict that deaths from heat stress are likely to double by the middle of the century. The number of people hospitalised because of air pollution is likely to treble. Notably, these figures do not consider demographic changes such as Australia’s ageing population.
Social, economic and demographic factors will also influence variability. Climate change will disproportionately impact on people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, whose disadvantage reduces their capacity to adapt and their ability to access the resources to assist with adaptation.
Indigenous communities – already the most marginalised in Australia – will be particularly affected. Changes in climate will exacerbate existing poor housing and sanitation conditions, which can increase the spread of disease. Frequent periods of flooding and drought may leave some communities no choice but to migrate. This will endanger placespecific cultural heritage practices and further fragment indigenous nations.
Those on low incomes will bear the brunt of the impact of food insecurity as higher production costs and lower availability push prices up. Disadvantaged communities will be forced to purchase cheaper, lowerquality, processed foods that already contribute to health problems such as childhood obesity and Type 2 diabetes.
Climate change will not just intensify the already-widening inequalities in Australian society. Its escalating influence over the distribution and movement of the population will compound the geographic dimension of disadvantage, determining where it is practical, safe, affordable, comfortable and healthy for Australians to live.
Population movement will affect the job and housing markets, and the demand for public services such as transport, health and education. Without considering other factors, say Australian scientists, climate change is likely to further concentrate populations in coastal south eastern Australia by 2030. This will happen in spite of the impacts of reduced rainfall and rising ocean levels in this region.
In fact, where you are goes to the heart of the question of adaptability. And not just where you are on the continent, but even down to the neighbourhood you live in.
Scientists at CSIRO and the Sydney Coastal Councils Group have used location-intelligent socio-economic data to generate local vulnerability assessments. In April last year, the team released a vulnerability map of Sydney’s local councils. It assessed five impacts: extreme heat and health effects; sea-level rise and coastal management; extreme rainfall and stormwater management; bushfires; and ecosystems and natural resources.
‘Different areas of Sydney will experience climate change in different ways depending on their location, demographics, and the resources and tools at their disposal,’ says research leader Dr Benjamin Preston, from the CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship. ‘The consequences in Sydney’s coastal region will be driven as much by socio-economic factors and decision making as by climate hazards.’
Spatial information will inform urban planning decisions and help determine the capacity of city dwellers to cope with climate change. Urban planners will need to choose development sites that will be less affected by extreme weather events, and improve building design accordingly. Appropriate healthcare facilities need to be located near vulnerable populations.
Urban planners will also need to design cities to reduce the ‘heat island effect’, which can produce an additional 2ºC of localised warming. This is a critical factor in air quality and public health. Scientists are currently using 3D thermal imaging and aerial photography to map urban temperature, rainfall, humidity and air quality in urban centres. They are also using spatial technology to model the effectiveness of such strategies as growing vegetation on building roofs, and using highly reflective building materials.
The future viability of agriculture and related industries centres on the question of where to grow what. Spatial information is helping farmers and governments tailor activities to suit their future regional climate. Early studies suggest adaptation measures could reduce the impacts of climate change on productivity by almost 50 per cent.
‘People need to eat, which means there will still be agriculture,’ says Dr Mark Howden, who leads the primary industries theme of the CSIRO Adaptation Flagship. ‘There is a lot of heterogeneity in Australian agriculture, so even under dry conditions, some patches will have enough run-off to sustain agricultural activity.’
Location-based technology is an essential part of disaster relief infrastructure and emergency response services, which will come under increasing pressure in the future. Spatial systems will also be important in tracking animal-borne diseases such as dengue fever, and in the development of extreme weather early warning systems.
Spatial information is already driving decisions on how communities can best prepare for life in a hotter world. A few in the industry are rising to the challenge. Those who don’t may find that they, too, will struggle to adapt in the new, climate change-driven world.
Inga Ting is a staff journalist with South Pacific Science Press.
